Ukraine's Attack On Russia's Deterrent Risks Nuclear War

Eurasia note #108 - Bombs air bases on the eve of peace talks in Turkiye

• Russian long-range bombers destroyed by drones

• Attacks challenge nuclear doctrine

• Coincides with peace talks in Istanbul

• EU leaders seem willing to bet the house on a war with Russia

• Are they puppets of the money power which stands above the nation state?

• If Europe were to fight and lose, capital would flee Europe, leaving it in the dust

• Poland elects a nationalist president; Hungary gears up for a fight with Brussels

• Trump's threat of 60% tariffs on EU postponed to July 9

• Stakes rise as they duke it out at our expense

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(1,900 words or 10 minutes of your company.)

Tbilisi, June 2, 2025

The spectacular attack by Ukraine-NATO on air bases approaches a red line by trying to incapacitate Russia nuclear capability.

The attacks were planned months ago but were executed just hours before Russian and Ukrainian delegates met in Istanbul. The talks lasted barely an hour.

Drones destroyed or damaged several strategic bombers that form part of Russia's long-range defence.

Russia's nuclear doctrine, point 19, lists:

"c) actions by an adversary affecting elements of critically important state or military infrastructure of the Russian Federation, the disablement of which would disrupt response actions by nuclear forces; "

In May 2024 Ukraine damaged Russian strategic early-warning radar sites.

It is fair to conclude that entities in West Europe don't want peace talks and are looking for escalation.

Although Russia rejects a ceasefire, it claims it would only be used as a ploy to rearm Ukraine. It says the war must conclude with peace talks.

The bombing of airbases in Russia’s northwestern Murmansk Region and east-central Irkutsk tend to confirm that suspicion.

A nuclear war in Europe could potentially cost billions deaths over decades. Some leaders appear to think this is a good deal; to have a shot at taking Russia's wealth at the cost of a billion deaths, according to a poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference.

Do the people in Europe know what their leaders are doing; that they are being made to pay for war, and will suffer from not just the financial but the political crackdown it entails?

There is much talk of building new weapons factories but the state of Europe's finances tells a different story. Strategic defence estimates say rearming could take years: if it happens, it will be a long-term project as people's savings are diverted into war.

This would accelerate the transfer of wealth, which we witnessed during Covid, which is happening through the cost of living and assets, from the cost of housing to attacks on farmers. It seems the real target is the people.

That only makes sense if you regard the money power — what I call the oiler-bankers and others call the Owners and Controllers of Global Financialized Capital (OCGFC) — as above and independent of nations.

Watch the actions of investors BlackRock from Ukraine, to the UK to U.S. — and remember they're just the manager, not the beneficial owners. Witness the attack on nation states and peoples, from open borders to the escalating threat of war.

Western Europe is a seat for old money, but if it were to fight Russia and lose, the money would flee. The Great Game is fought with the lives of citizens left in the dust, as the profit of the next war glitters.

The takeaway is that if peace comes at a price, war comes at an even greater cost.

There are some sparks of hope. Poland elected a loyal president — say what you will, if Brussels doesn't like him that's enough.

The EU is running out of friends. Having wrecked relations with Russia, and in a tariff war with the U.S., the EU may have to turn to Asia, China and India as its trade partner.