Syria's Surprise Fall Not So Strange

Assad's exit puts oil & gas routes back on the map

• If rebels won, army fell & dictator fled, why do U.S., Turkey and Israel still bomb?

• Syria is being dismembered, partitioned, balkanised

• Conquerors may turn out to be pawns who in turn are removed

• Iran may acquire nuclear weapons as region is destablised

• Europeans will care only when migrants arrive on their doorstep

• There's more to lose. Momentum is building; war is in its early days

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(2,300 words or 11 minutes of your company)

Dec 10, 2024

People are getting a lesson in statecraft.

Syria's collapse is not about Bashar al-Assad. It is about the future state which is already balkanised and may soon cease to exist. What does it means for your region and mine, however many thousands of miles away we live?

The power of media once again has low information folk cheering the "plucky rebels" on social media, and sticking a flag on their timeline.

The picture perfect image of Syria's Che Guevara is nothing but public relations, seemingly the same advertising execs who groomed Ukraine's actor-in-residence in his fatigues.

Ahmed Al Sharaa (commonly known as Abu Mohammed Al Jolani) was born to a well-off family, his father being an oil industry executive. He joined al Qaeda and founded al Nusra in 2011. In 2016 he rebranded that as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Click pic for Twitter/X:

The Guardian on cue shows smiling selfies, bear hugs with drummers on hand, and a provocative image from racial politics, the noose. Celebration, euphoria and carefully-aimed disgust.

But you don't need to rely on Middle East experts, much less media reporters, to see what is happening. The holes in the narrative are glaring.

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If the "rebels" won, the army gave up and the dictator fled — why are U.S., Turkey and Israel still bombing the country?

The bombing of Syria started the moment Assad took off in his jet.

Who is in control and why is the country partitioned between Turkish army, an Israeli border force and the variants of al Qaeda, ISIS and al Nusra — with the U.S. military sitting astride Syria's oil and wheat fields?

The answer lies in the significance of Syria's territory to a variety of groups. Today we see five or more interests coincide:

• Syria is a desirable route for oil and gas pipelines from the Gulf and Levant

• External powers are taking parts of Syria for buffer zones or its oil fields

• The oiler bankers have long wanted to regain control of West Asia's oil

• The territory roughly coincides with Greater Israel

• Balkanisation is the policy of UN Agenda 21 - the dilution of nation states

Here at MoneyCircus we saw this coming in September 2022.

The "Assad must go" cheerleaders got played. Tragically, the Syrian people, too. Possibly the "rebels" next.

The economy is devastated: much of the country is agrarian and remote, many people isolated and afraid; the security situation meant youth were drafted into the military missing out on college; the country is now in the control of roaming gangs. HTS is an umbrella label like AQ, ISIS, al Nusra. It may well descend into faction fighting.

Civilian infrastructure is already crippled by years of war, and Syrians returning home from abroad may find some districts barely habitable says Mathieu Rouquette, country director for Mercy Corps, blaming sanctions, war damage and a lack of repair.

With so-called rebels in charge of a dysfunctional state, Western powers, on the pretext of stabilising Syria, may invade. The plucky rebels may yet be played.

Blame game

The finger pointing has begun. Iran says Turkey assured it that no attack was envisaged. The former deputy commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Mohammad Gholamreza, says "Two months ago, we heard about potential activity in Idlib. We asked the Turks and some Arab countries and received assurances that no operation was planned." He says Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan specifically gave the guarantee.

Other accounts say president Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered Assad a deal; Iran says it warned Syria but that Assad was inflexible.

Washington says he rejected demands that he cut ties with Iran; Syrian officials that Assad had become ineffective or corrupt.

Simplicius has a fine summary. [1]

In any event the military mutinied or melted away, forcing Assad to leave in a hurry.

Assad himself would have had offers of refuge in the past: the Gulf states wanted him gone. Unable to buy him off, it seems they bought out his generals.

Why did Assad's officials stand aside: how many were infiltrated or spies. One of the first targets in Damascus was the Immigration and Passport Department — perhaps burning the evidence.

Rose spectacles

HTS — or its handlers — choreographed a brilliant propaganda coup.

In advance of its arrival, social media video would pop up in one town after another of Syrian soldiers laying down arms. Classic Color Revolution ™ techniques: they convinced the people the "rebels" had won, before they had won. The shock and awe was simply narrative.

Except that Syria now finds itself in a quagmire. This is bigger than 2011 and the "Arab spring" in Tunisia. We thought we had seen the worst in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.

Much of the public won't see what's coming because the television won't tell them the basics.

The airbrushed "rebels" will cause people to overlook the crucial fact: you cannot liberate a country that does not become sovereign.

And Syria is being dismembered. The appropriation of territory is underway which is likely to destabilise West Asia (Mid East) as the war in Ukraine has destabilised Europe.