Iran, Japan, Slovakia - Two Deaths, One Attempt

A note slightly out of tune; big changes afoot

• Death of Iran’s president leads to more questions than answers

• We take refuge in self-limiting perspectives or guarded melancholy

• The risk demands we ask: How deep does the oil and the money flow?

See also:
Eurasia note #93: Plain Talk Gets Slovak PM Shot - Media double standards on Fico shooting (May 17, 2024)
Eurasia note #91: What Is This EU That Georgia Would Join? Europe lost its way in the ‘90s – Georgia-EU part 3 (May 07, 2024)
Eurasia Note #14 - Foreigners Meddle, Kazakhs Complicit? (Jan 2022)

(2,300 words or 11 minutes of your company.)

May 20, 2024

Once the shock wears off, we can only hope that cool heads prevail over the death of Iran’s president Ebraim Raisi.

Individually, we may take refuge in self-limiting perspectives or, with cautious optimism or guarded melancholy, survey the possibilities.

Rick Scott, a U.S. senator from Florida celebrated the Iranian president’s crash. “He will be missed by no one… If he’s gone, I truly hope the Iranian people have the chance to take their country back from murderous dictators.”

Iranian expats accuse the late president Ebraim Raisi, a former prosecutor, of inhumane judicial rulings.

Western social media accounts pose fake images of fireworks in Tehran. These did not happen — but London NGOs did organise street celebrations.

However innocent the cause of Raisi’s immolation, interest groups are already forming a queue to capitalise on his death.

Anybody celebrating his killing is a fool. If Iranians conclude, rightly or wrongly, that Israel was involved they may respond - which in any case is what Israel wants, in order to pull the U.S. into military action, says John Mearsheimer. [1]

Beast from the East

In eastern Europe, the would-be assassin of Slovak prime minister Robert Fico may not have acted alone.

See Eurasia note #93: Plain Talk Gets Slovak PM Shot - Media double standards on Fico shooting (May 17, 2024)

The shooter “became radicalised after Fico ally Peter Pellegrini won a presidential election last month.”

“Radicalised” is the language of academics who make a career of terrorism studies, a close choice over gender studies (think about it). Research that is funded to serve the political needs of the moment.

Not to say radicalisation can’t happen, but it is a phénom du jour. Behind which stands the diversity, equity and inclusion industry, with its adjuncts Health & Safety, HR, and the recently merged police and social services sectors. [2]

Wolf or sheep?

What is the link. Or, more insightfully, who benefits from the loss of either man?

Fico was not a threat; more of an outlier and thus his attack an example pour encourager les autres.

He ticked all the boxes, rejecting the WHO pandemic treaty, calling as a premier for an inquiry into the Covid response, being critical of Israel in Gaza, and perhaps above all forming something of a growing bloc with Hungary, Serbia and the Czech republic.

I've written about why Yugoslavia was destroyed instead of forming a pre-made component of the European Union.

See Eurasia note #91: What Is This EU That Georgia Would Join? Europe lost its way in the ‘90s – Georgia-EU part 3 (May 07, 2024)

The EC remains hyper paranoid about any nationalist leanings from former east European countries — even though, or because, it was northern European nationalism that arguably caused two world wars.

My rule of thumb is any politician can get away with an enemy, even two. It is when three or more interest groups have you in their sights that things get sticky.

Three copters

On the Professional Pilots Rumour Network (PPRuNe) commentators say that fog alone was unlikely to be the cause of crash.

It turns out that three helicopters took off from Azerbaijan, after the celebration of a new dam on the Azeri-Iranian border.

The three helicopters would have been in communication.

First reports that the helicopter suffered a "hard landing" turned out to be misdirection — you don’t land if you flew into the side of a mountain.

In reality, an Iranian official told Reuters, “The president of Iran's plane was completely burned in the crash incident.”

The occupants of other two helicopters must have known the moment the third chopper was lost. News reports may have been intended to buy time before making an announcement. In any case, the objective was to manipulate perceptions.

The president was flying a Bell 212/412 helicopter. Analyst Mohammad Marandi says US sanctions have affected civil aviation in Iran.

“What we do know”, said Marandi, is that “when the helicopter took off the weather was good; it was sunny, but then the weather changed very quickly and there was heavy rain”.

Then we have the context of the past six weeks:

• Apr 1: Israel bombs Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, destroying the consular section, killing 16 including eight officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

• May 11: the Israeli X account tweeted, "We Will Dance Again."

• May 13th: Turkish President Erdoğan holds emergency meeting following warning of possible military coup.

• May 15th: Assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico.

• May 16th: Citizen arrested for threatening to assassinate Serbian President Vučić.

• May 19th: Helicopter crash involving Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian.

Consider a third death: that of Japan’s former prime minister Shinzo Abe, in July 2022.