Eurasia note #92: Russia's Spring Offensive In Ukraine

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(2,100 Words or about 10 minutes of your company)

Residents evacuate Lyptsi east of Kharkov, Ukraine… again.

Tbilisi, May 14, 2024

Imagine being forced to evacuate your home for a second time, having just returned from life as a refugee in Western Europe. That’s the prospect facing Ukrainians in the villages to the east of the country’s second city, Kharkov.

Ukraine is bracing for a broader Russian offensive, one that has already advanced towards Kharkov and is expected to expand in the Sumy region to the north.

It’s not only the locals that are worried. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kiev on Tuesday to discuss military assistance with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Behind the bravado and assurances of ultimate victory, NATO is concerned about the Russians’ latest advance.

This has brought Russian forces within kilometers of Kharkov.

Others warn that NATO’s bravado may lead it to provide Ukraine with support — in particular F-16 jets and troops on the ground — that would simply raise the stakes.

Former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter says the Kremlin has repeatedly warned that if NATO deploys its troops in combat (they are already on the ground in Ukraine as “advisers”) it might lead Russia to respond against Western targets directly.

Russia is getting ready for practice drills with tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons. Training will take place in the southern military district that includes those parts of Ukraine that voted to join Russia (which Ukraine regards as occupied) as well as in Russia’s border region with Ukraine.

Farewell, once more

The village of Lyptsi, where the Lypets river flows into the Kharkov river, was once home to 5,000 people. It has already changed hands two times between opposing forces, and is once again the focus of the Russian advance. [1]

Fewer than 1,000 people live there now, and some of them are considering leaving for relative safety.

Taking Lyptsi would place Kharkov within artillery range.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told The New York Times that he expects Russia to launch a new offensive to the north of Kharkov in the Sumy region.

Kyiv’s security council chief told AFP the administration “sees no risk of an imminent ground assault” on Kharkov despite Russia’s mounting offensive that began on Friday, May 10.

Yet Russian troops have captured at least nine villages since they opened a new front last week.

Oleksandr Lytvynenko said more than 30,000 of Russian troops were involved in the current northeastern invasion.

An attack on Kharkov would inflict enormous damage to Ukraine’s economy, Lytvynenko admitted and would displace more than a million inhabitants.

Western nerves

Until recently there had been two wars in Ukraine — one online, for the hearts and minds of Western audiences, and another on the ground, in which Russia had the overwhelming advantage of supply lines directly from its weapons factories to the front.

According to Reuters, quoting a source, Secretary Blinken "hopes to send a strong signal of reassurance to the Ukrainians who are obviously in a very difficult moment."

The Western press is no longer minimising Russia’s advantage. Britain's Telegraph reports:

"In Lyptsi, officials reported Russian jets, drones, and so-called KABs, or glide-bombs, which can carry up to half a ton of explosive. Dropped from a plane at height and then guided by GPS for several miles onto their target, they deliver a cruise missile-sized payload at a fraction of the cost."

The latest U.S. military supplies include combat vehicles, artillery shells and air defence systems, includes ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, capable of hitting targets 300 km away.

President Zelenskiy asked especially for more anti aircraft missiles to protect Kharkov. Ukraine is struggling to stop incoming missiles. It manages to intercept fewer than one in three, according to The Wall Street Journal. [2]