Eurasia note #52 - War Grinds On As Ukraine Awaits Missiles

France, Germany push for talks as Kissinger advises compromise on territory

Ukraine moves closer to Poland, offering reciprocal rights to citizens.
Publicly Ukraine rejects Kissinger’s advice to cede land to Russia and make peace.
War grinds on in east, as Russian forces gradually secure Donbas.

Belarus creates militia to further boost southern military command on Ukraine border.
Russia fears strong rouble will lead to deflationary spiral on domestic market.
Turkey and Kazakhstan take advantage of war to grab share of China-Europe logistics.
(1,800 words or about nine minutes’ read.)

Mykolaiv, a shipbuilding city east of Odesa, comes under shelling

Tbilisi, May 29, 2022

The pace of war in Ukraine has slowed, with steady Russian gains in the Donbas, but with indications there may be a renewed push westwards along the Black Sea coast.

Moscow’s original stated objective was to secure Donetsk and Lugansk. Now with broad strips of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, intermittent shelling is leading some to anticipate a renewed attack on Mykolaiv. The other major battle is on for Severodonetsk, the last major city in Lugansk that would give control of the oblast.

This morning Russian Defense Ministry said long-range missiles destroyed a large arsenal of the Ukrainian army in Krivoy Rog in Dnepropetrovsk region.

According to some estimates Russia now controls 20 per cent of the territory of Ukraine up from seven per cent in February.

Ukrainian officials sound increasingly desperate. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the situation in Donbas and Kharkiv “very difficult.” His presidential adviser Alexey Arestovich — like his boss a former actor — said Ukraine lacked the weapons to withstand attacks, particularly by Russian precision-guided missiles. Washington DC is considering a request for multiple-rocket launchers.

At the same time Kyiv reacted angrily when former U.S. national security adviser Heinz Kissinger told the World Economic Forum that Ukraine should be pragmatic and yield territory in return for peace. To continue fighting for the return of Crimea would mean starting a new war with Russia, he said. French and German leaders held a phone conversation with president Vladimir Putin on Saturday urging new talks.

President Zelenskiy has refused to cede any land in the Donbas region — it’s not clear whether Ukraine would accept a return to the status quo before Feb 2022, leaving Crimea in Russian hands.

The longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for Ukraine to justify the loss of life. Western leaders will have to explain why they wrought such damage to their own countries — their economies and to the democratic system, including civil liberties and election credibility.

Turkey has not backed down on its objection to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Foreign minister Mehmet Cavusoglu added on May 27 that the U.S. is wrong to think the matter will resolve itself with time.

The White House has implied it’s a matter for Turkey, Sweden and Finland to solve. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said this month they could not offer “political support to terrorist organizations and expect Turkey's consent to their NATO membership” — referring to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of waging a proxy war on Russia. He restated that if NATO puts military infrastructure in Finland and Sweden, or any weaponry capable of striking Russia, it would take that as a direct threat and be obliged to respond.

Turkey’s obstruction of NATO expansion may suit Russia but while it’s occupied in Ukraine, Erdoğan has a free hand in Syria — he’s also criticised the European Union and U.S. for supporting the Syrian Kurds of the YPG, the People’s Protection Units.

Regional influence

Syria is not the only issue on which Erdoğan may take advantage while Russia is otherwise occupied. Russian Railways, the state operator, was the main player in China’s Belt and Road initiative. This formed the so-called Northern Corridor. Although war has not physically obstructed its routes it’s been hit by sanctions.

This month Turkey and Kazakhstan agreed to speed up transport from China to Europe along the Middle Corridor, formally known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR), which hauls containers by rail through
Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Eastern Europe.

It’s yet another example of how this war is reshaping the global economy in unexpected ways.

The map below shows what an impact this could have on trade. China’s ambitions go beyond logistics, offering countries along the new Silk Road opportunities for production and assembly.