Eurasia note #48 - US Urges Ukraine To Fight On

Visit of secretaries Blinken, Austin prompts defiant response from Zelenskiy

Fighting spreads to Transnistria, with reports of bombings, cause unclear.
40 nations meet in Germany to discuss broader aid to Ukraine.
U.S. intends not just to aid Ukraine but weaken Russia so that it cannot defend itself.
Aggressive statement follows Blinken-Austin trip to Kyiv, according to NYT.
Ukraine Rada intimates it will pursue NATO membership regardless.
Ankara resists Washington plan for Black Sea deployment - Turkish defense minister.

Ukraine says Russia hit five railway stations hit in centre and west.
Lugansk governor says region loses electric power after Russian power station attack.
Balakliya munitions depot attacked in Kharkov, destroying supply of heavy shells.
Two explosions at Bryansk supply hub suggest Russia suffering sabotage.
Six Russian regions on Ukraine border raise terrorist threat levels.
Armenia, Azerbaijan start paying Russia in rubles for natural gas.
Elections in France and Slovenia point to increasing divisions within European Union.
(2,300 words or 11 minutes’ read)

U.S. secretaries Blinken and Austin with president Zelenskiy in Kyiv, courtesy Ukrainian Presidential Press Service

Tbilisi Apr 26, 2022

Representatives of 40 countries meet in Germany on Tuesday to discuss pouring more weapons into Ukraine. They meet at Ramstein airbase. Appropriately enough, say those with musical resonance.

Defense secretary Lloyd Austin said after a visit to Kyiv that Russia must be weakened and left unable to rebuild its capability. He insists Ukraine can win with the right equipment.

Accompanied by president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Austin toured a warehouse stacked with munitions ready to be transported into the war zone. The U.S. is by far the largest supplier.

In Moscow, the foreign ministry spokeswoman warned that Croatia was stoking Russophobia — reaching into the recent past that gave us the Yugoslav wars.

In France and Slovenia globalists were confident that elections handed victory to their man — but that merely papers over divisions (see below for more on both stories.)

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the preference for weapons over talks risks World War III. The danger “is serious,” he said and criticised Kyiv’s approach to floundering peace talks.

Before recent talks in Istanbul Zelenskiy had suggested willingness to compromise but discussions broke down, suggesting someone — either Azov nationalists or the U.S. — is tying his hands.

UK armed forces minister James Heappey said Ukraine has a “completely legitimate” right to attack military targets inside Russia. On Apr 24 Ukraine is thought to have hit an oil depot and logistics hub for Russian troops in the city of Bryansk.

Commentators are watching Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz who has proved reluctant to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, with some journalists even suggesting that Russia has compromising material on Berlin’s leader. See below for more.

Flashpoint Transnistria

There were reports of bombings close to state security headquarters in Transnistria on Monday, a few kilometers from Odesa. Civilian planes fly around the territory of Moldova. There is unconfirmed speculation that Turkey and Romania may assist Ukraine in a military operation against Transnistria. [1]

As reported in Eurasia note #47 Deputy Commander of the Central Military District Rustam Minnekaev on Apr 22 confirmed the objective to seize the whole Donbas region and southern Ukraine to provide a land bridge to Crimea — and a future capability to advance toward Transnistria.

The territory is about 1,400 square miles or 3,600 sq km, with a Russian-speaking population of about 500,000 and declared its independence from Moldova soon after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Crucially it is about 25 miles from Odesa.

Russian troops continue to probe Ukrainian defences in northern Donbas where basic positions remain unchanged, as in Kharkov oblast, where the country’s largest ammunition depot came under Russian control last week.

They pushed south of Izium into Dnipropetrovsk region. The highway is the main supply line to Ukraininan troops in Donestsk.

Russian forces press to Slavyansk, north of Kramatorsk, according to various sources including the Telgram account of Boris Rozhin. The encirclement of Lysychansk continues and the approach of Severodonetsk on the main Lugansk front.

In the south, Russian forces are reported to have shelled Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the border of Kherson Oblast with Nikolayev and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

Both forces continue drone or missile attacks on depots. In the past 24 hours Russian forces attacked five rail stations in central and western Ukraine, in an apparent effort to stop weapons supplies entering the country.

Denis Pushilin, the leader of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), said 2,500 Ukrainian militants sheltering in Mariupol steel works would rather be evacuated to Turkey than Kyiv because they don’t trust the Zelenskiy government.

He was speaking to Rossiya-1 TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov. On Monday the FSB says it arrested neo-Nazis who were planning to kill Solovyov and/or other Russian journalists on the orders of Ukraine’s Security Services.