Eurasia note #35 - Russia's Strategy Confirmed

Ukraine's plight becomes clear; new prospects for conflict emerge

Day 26: Street fighting continues in Mariupol and Kharkiv.
Much of AFU is bogged down to the west of Lugansk and Donetstk.
In south-western Donetsk Russian and DPR forces advance village by village.
Hypersonic missile destroys Ukrainian ammunition dump in west.
Russia is reportedly considering a ban on enriched uranium exports. 
Belarus troop exercises draw attention of Ukraine’s General Staff.
EU launches 5,000-strong common defence force.
Russia-Japan relations deteriorate.
(2,250 words or seven minutes’ read.)

Ukraine claims attack on Russian airbase in Kherson: credit: unian.net

Tbilisi, Mar 22, 2022

As we approach the end of the first month of fighting, early assessments of Russia’s strategy are confirmed. Ukraine is Europe’s second-largest territory which always made it unlikely that Russian forces would fan out across the country.

Instead they surprised those units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) that were bombing the Donbas — Russia’s pretext for intervening. Given that the Azov Battalion was sitting there, it is hard for the West’s state corporatist media to claim ignorance of the shelling that has claimed a reported 14,000 lives over eight years.

But denial is the order of the day. There are two wars underway: one that plays out in the commentary of the media which is gruesome and staged; another on the ground that is evil and banal.

See Moneycircus, Mar 18, 2022 — The West's Hypocrisy On Ukraine: White refugees, white supremacists and whitewashed wars

The anticipated pincer movement from Belarus to the north, and Rostov and Voronezh to the east, appears to be surrounding the AFU in that region.

At least two NATO-supplied bases have been bombed. On Mar 13, the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security at Yavoriv military base near Lviv was struck, just 15 kilometres from the Polish border. About 240 soldiers were killed, and up to $400 million of equipment destroyed. The same day a base in Ivano-Frankivsk, near Romania, was hit, costing 100 lives.

On Mar 19 Russia used a hypersonic missile for the first time, a 47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger) hitting underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. Hundreds were injured and put out of action.

The claim was met with counterblast from Western site The Drive (likely Mockingbird - for these military “expert” sites breed like Belling cats). The Russian claims should be questioned regardless. [1]

On Mar 20, dozens of Ukrainian soldiers died in a strike on a military base in Nikolaev, Mykolaiv oblast, in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine's General Staff says 15,300 Russian troops have been killed since Feb. 24. They say they also destroyed 509 Russian tanks, 1,556 armored vehicles, 252 artillery pieces, 80 multiple rocket launchers, 45 surface-to-air missiles, 99 jets, 123 helicopters and 35 drones.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov on Monday said, “Today Mariupol is saving Kyiv, Dnipro and Odessa.” Russian forces demolished Kyiv’s largest shopping centre in Podilskyi district of Kyiv to stop soldiers using it.

The propaganda war continues. Ukrainian forces say they are tying looters to lamp posts. Some Twitter reports say the people taped to lamp posts are human shields. Roma are daubed with blackface.

Video emerged of Mariupol citizens appearing to thank Russian troops for helping them evacuate the city despite the action of snipers — the diametric opposite of what British and U.S. newspapers report.

What Russian troops will do is evidenced by the Saltivka district in the northeast of Kharkiv, where 40 apartment buildings were destroyed. Logic favours the opening of corridors from Russia’s point of view because it encourages deserters... which reduces the risk to Russian troops. Once the civilians leave Mariupol, it will likely receive the Saltivka treatment.

The Western press is clearly controlled by military censors. How else does it speak with one voice?

The military is limited by its framing of the second Gulf war and the 78-day blitz on Yugoslavia as just. The lack of self reflection leads Western governments to pour weapons into Ukraine, effectively prolonging the war.

Not only that. To echo the WWI poets, this is the establishment versus the people. On the ground people tell one story, while the political cohort and the media they control are solidly behind the European Union line on Ukraine.

All soldiers, of whatever side, are Kipling’s “Tommy” and are entitled to recognition that they risk their lives for country or belief. That is why God, even if you take it as concept, is essential. The ultimate judgement must be external — otherwise the war does not end.

See Moneycircus, Nov 11, 2021 — Anthem For Doomed Youth: On Remembrance Day voices call to us from a century ago

Next stage

Belarusian forces are “highly likely” to join Russian attack, according to Ukraine’s General Headquarters. The warning came Mar 20, 2022.

Russian and Belarus forces have conducted military exercises even while the war in Ukraine has unfolded. [2]

Those maneuvers in the Brest region, near the Polish border, are not directly involved in the Ukraine operation. A drive south into the Volyn region of Ukraine, however, could effectively cut off weapon supplies from the west. But it would also take the war closer to NATO.

Russian aircraft already use Belarusian airfields and have extensive supply lines for fuel and munitions, as well as hospitals to treat the wounded. Belarus has rotated its battalion tactical groups on the border though it denied on Mar 12 that this signified involvement.

Internal opponents of Belarusian involvement have been damaging railways and leafleting troops according to an adviser to Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya.

On Monday, the European Union announced a 5,000-soldier rapid reaction force as part of its common defence strategy. The programme, called Strategic Compass, is much smaller than that envisaged by French president Emmanuel Macron.

Sanctions

Russia is reportedly considering a ban on enriched uranium exports. It supplies 16 per cent of U.S. needs.

It is another signal that sanctions cut both ways. Germany's politicians, dependent for roughly half their energy on Russian gas, coal and oil, placate the public with talk of a fleet of liquefied natural gas tankers heading to their rescue.

This is a mirage. Not only does it require many more tankers — Germany is building two more terminals — but after all that the spot price of LNG is many times higher than a longterm contract for pipeline gas. There are no long-term contracts for LNG tankers. By definition they sail to whoever pays most.

The U.S. has brazenly pushed Germany into smiting its Russian gas supplier. Is something similar happening with another country occupied by American military, namely Japan?

Russia and Japan on Tuesday cut off peace negotiations intended to solve the dispute over the Kuril islands. China stated it was was concerned for the two countries’ relations. Japan’s defeat of Russia in 1905 dongs like an historical bell. Military minds are not creative.

Sordid history

We know that Ukraine was chosen as a centre of operation for spies and organized crime using reconstituted Nazis as their footsoldiers. The press knew it too, as recently as a year ago.