Eurasia note #25 - Russia Arrives For Talks Alone

Western nations pour weapons into Ukraine, as negotiators struggle to meet

Russian delegation arrives in Belarus for talks with Ukraine — Kremlin.
Ukraine backtracks, rejects location, Russian military resumes action.
Russian forces continue to attack northern Kyiv; extend control of southern Ukraine.
U.S., EU, UK agree to exclude some Russian banks from SWIFT messaging system.
Western governments continue to pour weapons into Ukraine.

Germany drops historic policy on conflict zones; sends anti-tank and -aircraft missiles.
So far NATO members resist Ukraine’s calls for a “no-fly zone” — an act of war.
Next 72 hours are critical to see if this can be contained or of it spreads further.
(2,500 words, eight minutes’ read. For supporters: how the military state of play reflects rival visions of the new world order.)

Supplies of Swedish-British anti-tank missiles, NLAW, arrive in Ukraine

Tbilisi, Feb 27, 2022 (10:00 GMT)

Russian forces are still aiming for the high ground and protecting civilian infrastructure but that may change as the Ukrainian military present tougher-than-expected resistance.

The battle hangs in the balance for both sides — and media propaganda is not helping to form a clear picture. This article will try to correct that.

On Sunday, day four of the conflict, the Kremlin spokesman announced that negotiators had arrived in Belarus for talks with their Ukrainian counterparts. However Ukraine objected that the host country is involved in the conflict and wants a different venue.

Russian troops have successfully pushed into southern Ukraine. Kyiv is pincered between Russian troops to the north coming from Belarus. However, Ukrainian forces currently only have to defend the city on one side as Russian troops have struggled to reach Kyiv from other directions. There is not yet evidence that they would try to enter the city as opposed to surround it. So far the invasion has been characterized by relative restraint.

The focus remains on persuading Ukrainian troops to surrender. In the breakaway regions of the Donbas, Ukrainian forces are increasingly isolated and Russian supply lines are also stretched.

The invasion began on Thursday with the targeting of military bases, then Russian troops made their way to key cities from the autonomous regions in the east, from Crimea in the south and from Belarus in the north.

Critical days

The next 72 hours will be crucial to whether the war becomes a larger conflagration. Russia’s policy of restraint costs time. And all the while, Western governments are pouring weapons into Ukraine.

Germany reversed its policy of never sending weapons to conflict zones. On Saturday German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it would “support Ukraine in defending itself against Putin’s invading army,” and is sending 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft.

The Dutch government will supply 50 Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank weapons and 400 rockets. Together with Germany it may send a Patriot air defence system to Slovakia where it would be manned by a NATO battle group.

Washington will provide $350 million in additional military equipment to Ukrainian forces, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday.

Britain at midweek said it would send lethal weapons — its NLAW, next-generation light anti-armour weapon has reportedly been used to destroy Russian tanks. [1]

Poland has sent truckloads of munitions to feed anti-aircraft cannon.

So far NATO governments have resisted Ukraine’s calls for a “no-fly zone” above the country as that would effectively bring the West into the war.

Propaganda and politics

Some analysts say it was Ukraine’s threat to acquire nuclear weapons that prompted Putin to intervene. Western leaders said nothing at the time. Now that a conflict has erupted, Western governments are pouring weapons into Ukraine.

When Zelenskiy said Ukraine would acquire his own nuclear capability, Western leaders could have contradicted him swiftly and decisively. They remained silent.

It was not the first time. In Apr 2021 Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, said the Zelenskiy government might have to acquire nuclear weapons if it was left out of NATO and was weighing all options.

The paucity of Western leadership is part of the problem (it takes two sides to start a fight).

This week prime minister Boris Johnson said he understood the “attraction” of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, citing the example of northern Iraq in 1991 — before defence secretary Ben Wallace slapped down the PM, saying to pit British jets against Russian would be a declaration of war.

The press is as bad as the politicians, for they serve the same masters.

The propaganda is palpable. Click on a news page of ABC and an air raid siren blares, mixed with the sound of military drums, on the computer speakers. Al Jazeera’s correspondent hyperventilates from the safety of his hotel: the “real anger in the air” and “hatred for Putin is palpable”. One dares not look at the BBC or The Guardian.

Despite what these peddlers claim, the capital Kyiv is not surrounded — as falsely headlined in today’s SMH: “Russian troops surround Kyiv as Ukrainian President urges citizens to fight” — and a single pilot nicknamed “Ghost of Kyiv” did not bag six out of seven Russian aircraft downed by Ukraine two days ago.

This necessitates a correction here to the Feb 25 report of deaths in the defence of Snake Island in the Danube delta. Ukraine’s Border Guard walked back president Zelenskiy’s claim after video showed the soldiers in Sevastopol after their surrender. [2]

The war, tragic as it is for Ukraine and Russia, serves other purposes for Western governments. These include distraction from Covid, vaccine side effects and deaths, and the growing economic dislocation, resulting in food shortages, a fuel crisis and accelerating inflation. It distracts from Canada’s use of secret police to undermine the truckers and its readiness to seize the bank accounts of political critics. All of which discredits the banks’ roll out of Digital ID.

There’s something more disturbing: growing signals that globalists on all sides want conflict, as part of their competition to build rival visions of the world order.

George Orwell’s vision of the perpetual yet ever-changing enemy no longer looks redundant beside Aldous Huxley’s scientific dictatorship. Both may have a role. After centuries of great power politics built on the bones of war, can they do it any other way?

Now to take a look at the military state of play and how this positions the Ukrainians and Russians for talks.