Crisis Update: Will Globalist Warmongers Back Off

Are risks of WW3 overstated?

• If Syria can stabilise, shipping lanes flow and put wind in the sails of business...

• Will the protagonists take their profits, having had a good run?

• And yet look upon Gaza, high technology reducing humanity to the Stone Age

• Venal gains, weighed in flesh and misery. Churchill's ‘lights of perverted science’

• Bankers and technocrats wage hybrid class war - who knows where it ends

• Yet wars lead eventually to a new status quo

• Poll supports British-EU ties, yet it never left European military project

• Australia-NZ build a force, interoperable and ready for conflict

• The money power will decide when its hunger is sated

• Let's take a positive, yet critical, look

Related:
Eurasia note #55 - West's Decisive Moment In Ukraine - Putin says unipolar world is dead; Neocons still seeking one more American century (Jun 20, 2022)
Eurasia note #78 – Churchill’s Wars And Financial Ties - If you stay close, you win the cigar (May 18, 2023)
Eurasia note #96 Stirring Trouble In Russia’s Backyard - Bombs and terror, as 170 year-old policy continues (Jun 24, 2024)
Trump's Stars Align With Age Old Interests - Cabinet picks do little to quiet the drums of war (Nov 15, 2024)

(2,900 words or a mere coffee break)

December 12, 2024

What if we are too quick to view events in Syria as a further escalation?

Could this multi-pronged assault, of hybrid wildfires catching across Eurasia while managers and technocrats wage class war upon their fellow citizens, come to an end?

There is, to be sure, awful suffering in Gaza, and more to come in Syria, while the war in Ukraine grinds on, but this sadly is not unusual in human history.

War usually leads to a new status quo, being the continuation of politics by brutal means.

Monetary crisis, it can be argued, got us into this mess, and the scent of profit could get us out.

The British and French carved West Asia (Mid East) upon lines that suited imperial and oil interests. Eighty years later Europe tried to dethrone the U.S. currency with its euro, aided by London's control of overnight interest rates that manipulated the price of the dollar.

Rigging interest rates was not Europe's only ace. It relied increasingly on cheap Russian gas.

Five minutes later...

The U.S. was never going to let Europe be energy independent: the Nord Stream gas pipeline blew up. Europe now lacks gas, oil and, with a few exceptions like France, nuclear energy. Europe's leaders forgot it is U.S. military dominance that supports the mighty dollar. The U.S. has 100,000 servicemen in Europe, to Britain’s 75,000.

How did Europe lose its energy: through Green policy and war — Green policy, which if you look closely, is financed by those same U.S. oil interests.

The Western European capitals, led by London, took another shot at Russia — something Britain had been doing for nigh 200 years.

At best, they hoped to seize Ukraine's mineral riches; at worst they could exclude Russia from competition, in business as in sports, as they had done with the Bolshevik putsch a century before.

U.S. senator Lindsey Graham spelled it out on June 10 to CBS: “They are sitting on $10 to $12 trillion of critical minerals in Ukraine.”

One more layer is the monetary transition underway in the background, from the present fiat (paper note) system to central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Cynical, moi?

And then there is the "wish to alter the life of an entire people... No more effective means to that end is known to humanity, than war.” (Carnegie Foundation, 1908).

That's right. It became the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

No monetary transition is without risk.

Europe is stuck with the Ukraine war because it has become a liability. Money is lent to Kyiv to pay the interest on previous loans, and if the $15 billion or so per year is not paid, creditors like the Bank of England stand to lose.

Arc of narrative

Where in this desperate hell scape can we see the sun?

Winston Churchill rang a note of truth when he said:

“If we can stand up to him (Hitler and subsequent stand-ins, like Saddam, Gaddafi, Putin and most recently, Assad), all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science.”

I had forgotten for a moment the "safe and effective" — thanks, Sir Winston!

With this arc of narrative, the psycho-social driver of behaviour, Churchill led us out of one crisis, while laying the ground for the next.

An Anglo-American, he told us to struggle for the survival of Britain and the United States, while the oiler-bankers who financed his extravagant lifestyle and his think tank, The Focus, never took their eye off the next goal — for there is always more to be grasped.

See Eurasia note #78 – Churchill’s Wars And Financial Ties - If you stay close, you win the cigar (May 18, 2023)

Take the winnings

The question is whether the warmongers take their profits, the protagonists having done fairly well in recent weeks. If peace is merely the absence of war, we can still seize the day.

Not surprisingly, the same oil and gas interests could inspire relative peace in West Asia (Mid East).

Look at the positives: Oil and gas pipelines are back on the map, from Qatar to Europe, solving the continent's energy shortage. Turkey would get juicy transit fees.

If war is brought under control in Yemen and the Red Sea, Britain's Baltic Exchange gets its shipping fees and Lloyds gets its insurance. France can start doing business in Syria again, allowing president Emmanuel Macron to claim a win, and avoid his constitutional crisis. Even Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s German government might do better in the plls.

China and Russia want to do business in Africa, and Moscow has the incentive to play nice in order to keep its Mediterranean port in Tartus, Syria.

Iran was an ally of the U.S. and Israel before 1979, and money can grease a lot of palms as they are raised to feel which way blows the breeze.

The mullahs are thought to have a theological objection to nuclear weapons and might seek any alternative to being forced into a mass-slaughter game of chicken.

They have customers ready and willing: British and European economies are in no condition to weather the consequences of their (self-imposed) energy starvation.

Jihadist meets Milton Freedman

Syria could even become the next economic miracle, according to Reuters news agency. Its economy is going neoliberal after decades of import permits and foreign exchange controls.

“It will be a free-market system based on competition,” Bassel Hamwi, head of the Damascus Chambers of Commerce, told Reuters — open to investment after 13 years of war.

Sadly Reuters could not reach Syria's interim economy minister, Bassel Abdul Aziz, to ask how this will work with Sharia law and Islamic finance.

This is Pinochet shock therapy in 1973 Chile, but with Al-Qaeda characteristics, as author and documentary-maker Dan Cohen has quipped. [1]

Risk aversion

There is upside for everyone, at the risk of more suffering.

How far will Israel and Turkey pursue their extension of borders and buffer zones? Have the extremists in Syria turned into moderates? Will the U.S. welcome Russia's assistance in removing Bashar al-Assad or see it as a sign of weakness?